Ok, here we go in Part II of our analysis of the Long Beach market. This again is taken from the article in the Long Beach Press Telegram. You can find the full article at http://www.presstelegram.com/outlook/ci_5290043.
Please see the Part I post for more information on where things left off. This time we will focus on the remaining experts that the press telegram has interview for this piece.
The next expert that they cover is Tammy Newland who is the owner of Los Alamitos Keller Williams. Full disclosure, James and I are both agents for Keller Williams Realty. We are not part of Tammy's office. Now this won't stop me from my opinion on Tammy's outlook but I want everyone to know.
I believe that Tammy actually gives a far better picture of what is going on in the market. We are in fact based on supply and demand and I, like Tammy, believe that the market has to flatten out because wages have not risen fast enough to continue to demand curve act increasing prices.
Randy Smith of C21 is the next expert. He is stating an 11% drop in the number of closed sales from the previous year. This just means less closed sales have occured. Randy has not provided the reader with any indication that there have been dramatically less listings or any other figure that would help us gauge the effectiveness of his statement. I am not faulting Randy just saying a few more figures would have helped.
He brings up a great point about negative amortization loans. These loans are set-up in a way that if an owner chooses the lowest payment option they will be adding a balance to their loan. These loans can cause problems if owners are not educated properly on how to use them. In some cases sellers are not even aware they have this loan which is sad.
In all Randy points out we will have a slight appreciation. I tend to agree with this point. What do you think?
The last expert is Rose Voss who is a consultant to Coldwell Banker. Now Rose comes up with a figure that the last market had 30% speculators involved in it. This is a great statistic that I am not sure can be proven false or true. I would love to know where it came from. Rose continues with how the return has been for buyers in the last few years. We know it has been good what we care about is the future. Her predictions aren't over whelming and she isn't risking much with her comments so I won't even bother commenting on them.
In all I believe that Randy and Tammy provide a nice view of where the Long Beach market is going to be. In future blogs we will be posting the stats by month so we can all see what is going on. We believe that this will be a year in where if sellers want to sell they can get it sold provided they price accurately. Buyers who are focused and motivated can get that first time or trade up property they couldn't get two years ago. There is still room for everyone and we don't believe that the market is going to fall apart.
You be the judge of the real estate market!
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